Washington D.C. – The U.S. Air Force (USAF) has presented a 10-year combat fleet plan to Congress, indicating that the country may face a serious shortage of fighter aircraft in the future.
Defence industry groups have warned that the plan is not aligned with current budget and production capacities, describing it as a potential “readiness and deterrence crisis.”
Historic Decline for the U.S. Air Force
The U.S. Air Force’s total fleet of around 5,000 aircraft has dropped to the lowest level in the institution’s 78-year history.
Only a portion of these are “combat-coded,” meaning fully equipped and assigned to operational missions.
In March, the Commander of the U.S. Air Force Reserve warned that funding shortages and ageing platforms threaten readiness, potentially undermining the ability to respond swiftly to domestic and international crises.
Report to Congress: 300-Aircraft Gap
The report submitted to Congress this month states that the Air Force will require a total of 1,558 combat-coded aircraft by 2035.
However, by fiscal year 2026, the inventory is projected to include only 1,271 aircraft — leaving a gap of roughly 300.
While the plan does not directly request funding from Congress, it points to the need for additional financial support.
The report also cautions that modernisation priorities and budget limitations could prevent the Air Force from meeting its objectives.
Investment in Next-Generation Aircraft
U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff General David W. Allvin told the Senate Armed Services Committee that investment in next-generation platforms is essential to maintaining deterrence.
Allvin stated that the development of the F-47 Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter jet is a top priority, alongside the continued modernisation of the F-35 Lightning II and F-15 Eagle fleets.
In addition, plans are underway to revitalise the B-52 Stratofortress bomber fleet.
Comparison with China and Russia
According to FlightGlobal’s World Air Forces 2025 report:
- China possesses approximately 1,433 fighter jets, including 19 fifth-generation stealth J-20 aircraft.
- Russia operates more than 1,000 combat aircraft.
In contrast, the U.S. Air Force has around 1,400 active-duty fighter jets, with only 886 combat-coded.
These figures suggest that the U.S. risks losing its numerical advantage and must accelerate the pace of modernisation.
Reactions from Defence Companies
Mark Sears, Vice President of Boeing’s Fighter Aircraft Program, told Breaking Defense:
“We are increasing production to meet projected demand. In the coming years, we will ramp up to 24 aircraft per year.”
Experts note that the U.S. may attempt to close the shortfall in the short term by maximising production of the F-15EX and F-35A lines.
Readiness and Capacity Crisis
Defence analysts report that the U.S. Air Force is experiencing a decline in readiness due to ageing platforms, pilot shortages, and budgetary pressure.
Some experts argue that this situation poses a risk of under-preparedness for future high-intensity conflicts.
A military analyst told Newsweek:
“This isn’t just a numerical gap; it’s a strategic risk. The U.S. must accelerate investment in production and modernisation to maintain air superiority.”
What’s Next?
In the short term, the Air Force plans to increase production of the Boeing F-15EX and Lockheed Martin F-35A. In the long term, it aims to transition to the F-47 NGAD programme.
However, the success of this transition will depend on congressional budget support and the ability to boost production rates.
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