In recent years, both the frequency and intensity of turbulence incidents during flights have noticeably increased. Experts link this trend directly to climate change. Rising global temperatures are altering atmospheric airflows and wind systems, ushering in a new era that may pose risks to flight safety.
The Invisible Threat: Clear-Air Turbulence
There are three main causes of turbulence: convective activity (such as clouds and storms), orographic effects (airflows over mountainous terrain), and the particularly dangerous clear-air turbulence. Since clear-air turbulence cannot be detected by radar, it often catches pilots and passengers by surprise.
According to Professor Paul Williams of the University of Reading in the UK, turbulent air conditions could increase two to threefold in the coming decades. This rise is expected to impact transatlantic routes as well as flights over Asia and North America most significantly.
Is Passenger Safety at Risk?
Since 2009, more than 200 serious turbulence-related injuries have been recorded in the U.S. alone. In 2023, turbulence accounted for approximately 40% of all serious in-flight passenger injuries worldwide. Still, aviation experts emphasise that the overall risk to flight safety remains low. Thanks to the flexible structure of aircraft wings, planes can withstand sudden air movements effectively.
New Technologies to the Rescue
Modern weather forecasting systems and AI-powered algorithms have greatly enhanced the ability to detect turbulence zones in advance. Airlines are using this data to plan safer flight paths. Some carriers, such as Southwest Airlines, now suspend in-cabin service when entering turbulent zones to minimise crew injuries.
Additionally, innovative solutions like real-time wing movement control systems and “turbulence suppression technologies” are expected to become more widespread in commercial aviation over the next few years.
