A recent report by Space Capital suggests a striking possibility for the aerospace and defence giants Boeing and Airbus: both companies might completely withdraw from the space market. While Boeing’s presence in major projects like the Space Launch System (SLS) faces threats, a rapidly transforming sector is challenging these corporate behemoths.
The Uncertain Future of the SLS
The new administration could adopt a sceptical approach to NASA’s Artemis programme and the SLS. Both Elon Musk and Jared Isaacman have criticised these projects for inefficiency, advocating instead for a focus on Mars and prioritising commercial solutions. However, cancelling the SLS is not just a technical decision but also a significant political battle. The project supports a vast ecosystem of jobs across multiple states.
Nevertheless, political rumours suggest it might be possible to cancel the SLS and shift NASA’s priorities towards Mars. It is reported that former President Trump had a limited window of opportunity to make such a move before the midterm elections.
Defence Missiles and the Prospect of a Space Retreat
Recent years have been challenging for companies like Boeing. The company has absorbed $1.7 billion in expenses related to its defence and space operations, a significant portion of which stems from delays with the Starliner spacecraft.
According to Space Capital, companies like Boeing and Airbus struggle to compete in the commercial space market, where fixed-price contracts are the norm. Boeing, accustomed to operating under a cost-plus model, finds it hard to adapt to fixed-price agreements. This provides commercial companies like SpaceX with a significant competitive advantage.
The Rise of Commercial Space
As the commercial space industry continues to expand, SpaceX has become the dominant player in satellite manufacturing and launches across both civil and defence markets. Smaller firms are also moving into defence projects. Companies like K2 Space and Planet offer cost-effective, innovative solutions, drawing attention from institutions like the Department of Defense (DoD).
The DoD’s shift from large, expensive satellites to smaller and faster-build satellite architectures makes it increasingly difficult for giants like Boeing and Airbus to remain profitable in this sector.
What’s Happening in the Skies This Week?
- 27 January (Monday):
SpaceX | Falcon 9 | Starlink Group 12-7
Launch Time: 3:22 PM ET
Location: SLC-40, Cape Canaveral Space Force Station - 28 January (Tuesday):
Blue Origin | New Shepard | NS-29
Launch Time: 10:00 AM CT
Location: Launch Site One, West TexasISRO | GSLV | NVS-02
Launch Time: 7:53 PM ET
Location: Second Launch Pad, Satish Dhawan Space Centre, India - 29 January (Wednesday):
SpaceX | Falcon 9 | SPAINSAT Next Generation I
Launch Time: 8:34 PM ET
Location: LC-39A, Kennedy Space Centre, Florida - 30 January (Thursday):
SpaceX | Falcon 9 | Starlink Group 12-3
Launch Time: 5:44 AM ET
Location: SLC-40, Cape Canaveral Space Force StationSpaceX | Falcon 9 | Starlink Group 11-4
Launch Time: 3:32 PM PT
Location: SLC-4E, Vandenberg Space Force Base, California - 1 February (Saturday):
MHI | H3 | Michibiki 6
Launch Time: 3:30 AM ET
Location: LA-Y2, Tanegashima Space Centre, Japan
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