A growing danger is lurking in the sky: space debris. Scientists warn that uncontrolled re-entry of rocket fragments and defunct satellites into Earth’s atmosphere poses a potential risk for aviation accidents. While there has been no recorded instance of space debris colliding with an aircraft, experts emphasize that such an event could have catastrophic consequences.
What Do Studies Show?
A study conducted at the University of British Columbia in Canada modeled the distribution of aircraft in the sky and the re-entry patterns of uncontrolled rocket bodies. Researchers found that the risk of space debris falling near major airports is approximately 0.8% per year, while in airspace with high traffic, this risk can rise to as much as 26%.
Starlink and Mass Satellite Deployment
One major contributor to the increase in space debris is the mass satellite deployment by companies like SpaceX. Projects such as Starlink have sent thousands of satellites into orbit, many of which eventually re-enter Earth’s atmosphere after reaching the end of their lifespan. During this process, uncontrolled space debris poses a serious threat to both satellites and aircraft.
The Scale of the Danger
According to data from The Aerospace Corporation, in 2021, the probability of a fatal collision between an aircraft and falling space debris was 1 in 100,000. However, this risk is growing as space traffic and air travel continue to increase. Research indicates that even a tiny fragment weighing just one gram could cause a serious accident if it were to hit an aircraft’s windshield or engine.
Airspace Closures Under Consideration
The rising risks have sparked discussions about closing certain airspace areas as a precaution. This measure could lead to flight delays, cancellations, and increased air traffic congestion, causing significant economic and logistical challenges. Experts highlight the dilemma faced by aviation authorities: Should airspace be closed as a precaution, or should it remain open despite the risks?
The Need for Broader Measures
Predicting the exact re-entry paths of space debris remains a complex challenge. This uncertainty could necessitate the closure of large airspace areas. For instance, in 2022, when China’s Long March 5B rocket made an uncontrolled re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere, some airspace zones were temporarily shut down as a precaution.
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