European aircraft manufacturer Airbus has updated its long-term outlook for the global commercial aviation market. The company forecasts 43,420 commercial jet deliveries worldwide over the 20-year period from 2025 to 2044. This figure represents a 2% increase compared to last year’s projection.
Growth in Passenger and Freighter Aircraft
According to Airbus’ latest forecast:
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42,450 passenger aircraft
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970 freighter aircraft
are expected to be delivered. The passenger aircraft projection is up 2% from last year, while the freighter outlook has increased by 3%.
Global GDP and Trade Forecasts Revised Downward
Airbus has revised its global trade volume growth forecast down from 3.1% to 2.6%. Likewise, the global GDP growth estimate has been adjusted to 2.5%. However, the average annual growth forecast for air passenger traffic remains unchanged at 3.6%.
“There Are Headwinds, But Also Encouraging Signals”
Antonio Da Costa, Airbus’ Vice President of Market Analysis and Forecasting, stated that despite geopolitical developments, the long-term outlook remains positive. He noted:
“There are some headwinds due to recent geopolitical and trade dynamics. However, the initial signals give us reason for cautious optimism.”
820 Aircraft Delivery Target Maintained
Christian Scherer, CEO of Airbus Commercial Aircraft, affirmed that despite ongoing engine supply issues in the production chain, the company remains on track to meet its 2025 target of 820 aircraft deliveries:
“There are currently around 40 aircraft bodies in our factories awaiting engines. Nevertheless, we remain cautiously optimistic that we can meet our goal.”
Airbus vs Boeing: The Rivalry Continues
Airbus and its American rival Boeing continue to dominate the civil aviation sector as its two largest players. Ongoing fleet renewal needs, tightening environmental regulations, and rising passenger demand indicate that both manufacturers are likely to face sustained high order volumes in the coming years.
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